AIIA National Conference 2023
Navigating the Perfect Storm
Australian Foreign Policy and the Polycrisis
13 November 2023, Hotel Realm, Canberra
with masterclasses on 12 November for successful applicants.
“Our world,” said United Nations Secretary General António Guterres earlier this year, “is plagued by a perfect storm on a number of fronts.” An economic crisis is exacerbating global inequality. Russia has unleashed a tempest in Eastern Europe, while the clouds of strategic tension darken shores in our own region. This year has seen the hottest average global temperatures recorded, yet global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels show no sign of decrease. Many nations are still dealing with the costs of COVID-19, yet we are nowhere near prepared for pandemics to come. It is not the role of serious thinkers and policymakers to sugarcoat this “polycrisis” but to confront it head on. But what are the solutions to these myriad problems, and how can Australia steer a course that best preserves its national unity, prosperity, and security, while contributing to regional stability?
The Return of Ideology?
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has led to a new discussion on the relevance of regime types in international relations. We are, according to some, in a contest of democracies versus autocracies, with Chinese and Russian influence enabling other countries to flirt with illiberal politics. This problem may be particularly pertinent in our own region with some states facing difficulties around capacity and governance. Some critics warn, however, that the danger is not simply within regimes: there is a creeping illiberalism within multilateral institutions too. But is the bifurcation of the world into opposing groups a useful mode of analysis or diplomatic position? Should we incorporate the positions of other nations on human rights and democracy into how we view them strategically? Do we risk alienating countries with which we share significant common interests but fewer common values?
Energy and the Environment
To mitigate the climate crisis, national governments are establishing timelines for a transition to carbon neutral economies. A cornerstone of most national environmental policies is the shift from petroleum and other fossil fuel energy infrastructure to clean energy, including solar, wind, and hydrogen. What advantages does Australia have that will make it competitive throughout this transition? Is recent discussion of nuclear power as a renewable resource sensible, given Australia’s new security commitments? How can Australia ensure that it maintains economic growth and energy security while protecting the environment? How will we deal with the fact that countries in the South Pacific may be uninhabitable by 2050? Are recent changes to Australian climate policy enough to dispel the notion elsewhere that Australia is a climate laggard? Indeed, can Australia work with partners to become a global leader in the green transition?
De / Globalisation and Inequality
Globalisation is increasingly a dirty word. While mainstream narratives in developed nations have traditionally framed interconnectedness as delivering career opportunities and new freedoms and experiences, many commentators now stress that the economic ties that bind us also harm us. Across the West, we’ve seen significant populist backlashes to globalisation, perhaps most dramatically in the United States of the Trump years. Meanwhile, development experts note that the COVID-19 pandemic accelerated global economic and political inequality. What are Australia’s roles and responsibilities when it comes to confronting these challenges? Can we think of new ways of delivering aid to alleviate international poverty? How do questions of gender and identity relate to global inequality and conflict? Are new and more imaginative forms of globalisation possible, where economic security and resilience can protect vulnerable populations?
Diversifying, Decoupling, De-risking, Friendshoring
As a net importer of both capital and technology, Australia is dependent on global technological supply chains. Indeed, value chains account for half of global trade. Yet, national governments, both democratic and authoritarian, are realising the political utility of restrictions on trade and financial freedom. Decoupling, de-risking, diversification, and friendshoring have become part of the international political vernacular, but what do these terms mean in reality? What significance do China’s targeted trade restrictions have when the Australian economy is so resilient? What effect will American attempts to corner semiconductor and other high-tech supply chains have on the global economy? Will attempts to rewire the global economy end in a better balance between openness, fairness, and resilience. Or will it lead to sustained higher prices, slower more uneven growth, and lower living standards than otherwise would be the case?
Strategic Competition and Australian Strategy
Tension between China and the United States is now the predominant setting for international relations in Australia’s region. Australia’s neighbours, particularly in South East Asia and the South Pacific, face difficult choices in the years ahead. Canberra has responded with a message of strategic equilibrium, that is, Australia will assist nations in the region to maintain their sovereignty, while attempting to stabilize its own relationship with Beijing. This, while allowing greater basing rights for the United States in Australia and developing a nuclear-powered submarine deterrent. Is Australia on the right strategic path? What do others in the region think of Australia’s words and actions? Does AUKUS provide for our security while protecting our sovereign capacity, or does it constrain our choices for the sake of a larger allied strategy? What are the strategic options for Australia in the decades to come?
